Primary Election Day 2016: Thoughts on Texas Civic Health, March 1st

Texans for Civic Health:

Thoughts on Election Day 2015

With Election Day this week, I’m excited to see how Texans vote. While concerned about turnout; it’s clear that non-presidential elections show who really cares about politics, while it seems most people don't give a flip. On November 3^rd in Houston, there are some red-meat issues like City Prop 1, and we’re electing a Mayor, so there should be strong interest this cycle; even though for the past 25 years, the median age of a voter in a Houston mayoral election is 68 yrs old.

So, the question for this post is “why don’t more Texans vote?”

Experts use the standard, “Civic Health” like a lens, looking at what happens in public life: how citizens interact with one another, with our communities, with government. Civic health is measured by the degree to which a whole community involves its people and organizations in addressing its problems, and one of its cornerstones is voting. Because of Texas’ extremely low voter turnout, many question its citizens’ connectedness to government and confidence in its leaders, but the analysis must also hold individual Texas voters accountable; they may not vote b/c they don't have any "skin in the game?"

A survey of “low propensity” voters in Texas found the most-named reason (32%) for not voting was that “they don’t know enough about the candidates or the issues.” Is this ignorance, apathy, or negligence? How much of engagement relies on each citizen, and how much is it a result of poor civic health? Another 15% said they “don’t have enough time to find out about the candidates and vote.” Is that just a matter of poor planning or knowing failure to budget time for civic involvement? Are Texans bored with politics?

Among those who already classify themselves as infrequent voters, saying “I don’t have enough time,” rose to 21%, and among Hispanic infrequent voters, it climbed to 25%. Texans are too busy to vote, or at least that is what they say publicly. Privately, could it be that they don’t care to become educated or take the time to actually cast a ballot? With many activities competing in a busy social marketplace, participation in the “public sphere” doesn’t command the attention of other equally important matters. What about the working class who use public transportation? How convenient are early voting centers, and how long are they open? Presently in Harris County, there are 41 voting sites all over the metro area, and the polls are open for 12 full days before Election Day; but I’ve spoken with a few people who found the ballot confusing and the locations less than desirable.

The 2010 Census Survey asked us why we didn’t vote: almost one-third (29.5%) of Texas non-voters said they were too busy. Another 14.5% said they forgot to vote or to send in their ballot, while 16.3% said “they were not interested or their vote wouldn’t make a difference.” With almost ⅔ of the population apathetic about voting, or plainly blowing-it-off; government reflects small but powerful voting factions, those who get to the polls on a consistent basis. The average number of votes cast for a primary election winner increases ten-fold in the general election, making each voter 10X as valuable on March 1st; super voters show up for Super Tuesday.

According to The Washington Post, local TV ad spending for both presidential candidates in 2012 amounted to only $164,670 in Texas (with all of those dollars spent in support of Romney), compared with local ad spending in key battleground states like Florida, Virginia and Ohio, topping $150 million each! Notwithstanding 2012, and for the first time in 40 years, Texas will help decide the presidential nominees of both parties, March 1^st, 2016. Although no one knows what is boiling below the surface of the cauldron which is today’s electorate, this primary presents an opportunity for Texans to engage on a national scale with important political decisions.

Typically only tectonic shifts in the political landscape turnout large numbers of Texan voters, but Super Tuesday may gauge the larger voice of citizens usually too apathetic to care about elections. Both parties will present high-profile candidates to be the 45^th President, but how far down the ballot does a voter’s attention span go? This election gives outsider candidates at any level the opportunity to break through the establishment status quo. This vigorous field of Republican candidates has ignited a fire of dissatisfaction, consistently claiming that the political system is broken, and the current front-runners are clearly outsiders galloping forward on a reform horse. 

Some interesting facts from recent polling, each from different sources but mysteriously with the same percentages:

• 63% of the country thinks the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction (a pivot away from Obama?)
• 63% of the country believes that their children's generation will have a harder time making it than they did (and they're concerned about the future!)
• 63% of GOP voters said they would change their vote if they became convinced that another candidate was a better fit (not very firm about a candidate.)
• 65% believe that the news media "has a negative effect on the way things are going in the country." (who can they trust?)

The usual primary voter is active, educated, and motivated; however, in 2016, according to experts, at least 300,000 (other) “straight ticket” voters will also show up for the primary when otherwise they would only vote in a November general election (the kind with Republicans versus Democrats). As you can see from the polling numbers listed above, this election year is going to be about change. “Straight ticket” voters, sua sponte aren’t the kind who put a whole lot of effort into voting, but they at least show up for major battles. In four months, a March 1^st primary election might pique the interest of the “apathetic” voter enough for them to come to the polls; if nothing else because of the lively field of Republican candidates. On February 26, 2016, Houston hosts a Republican presidential debate, which should generate massive interest, just as previous debates this season. My prediction is for a very active primary in this state, with an uptick in turnout, and remarkable results.

How much attention will the "lever-pullers" or infrequent voters give to races down-ballot? They might be staunch, dyed-in-the-wool, yellow-dawg Democrats; but do they really care for individual races as much as (easy) blind party loyalty? If a voter rarely exercises their rights, at best too busy or at worst disinterested in elections; how will they engage in this process when there isn’t a simple, binary, straight-ticket decision to make? These are million dollar questions for the rest of the ballot, and fodder for political scientists to study for years, making the next time we go to the polls in Texas extremely interesting, and important.

"Professional politicians like to talk about the value of experience in government. Nuts! The only experience you gain in politics is how to be political." --Ronald Reagan

©Mark H. Pillsbury

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